What is currently expected
Motorists in South Africa are set to face steep fuel price increases in April 2026. Petrol is expected to climb by more than R3.35 per litre, while diesel could rise by over R5.00 per litre. The surge is being driven by global supply disruptions and higher crude oil prices. A weaker rand is adding further pressure, while a government-approved fuel levy increase of 21 cents per litre, taking effect on 1 April, is expected to push prices even higher.
Data from South Africa’s Central Energy Fund (CEF) suggests that by April 2026 motorists could face one of the biggest fuel increases on record:
Petrol: possible increase of over R3 per litre
Diesel: possible increase of over R5 per litre
These projections come from large “under-recoveries” in the fuel price formula — meaning the actual cost of importing fuel is currently much higher than the price at the pumps.
Why prices are rising so sharply
Several factors are driving the spike:
1. Global oil supply shock
Escalating conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has disrupted Middle Eastern oil supply routes.
Oil prices have surged toward $90+ per barrel.
2. South Africa’s weak currency
Fuel is priced in US dollars, so a weaker rand makes imports more expensive.
3. Government fuel levy increases
The national budget includes increases to the General Fuel Levy and RAF Levy, taking effect 1 April 2026.
4. Import dependence
South Africa imports a large portion of its fuel, making it highly sensitive to global oil disruptions.
Potential impact on South Africa
If the increases materialize, it could lead to:
Higher transport and logistics costs
Rising food prices
Increased inflation
Pressure on households and businesses
Some analysts warn this could trigger a broader inflation spike across the economy.